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This is a fictitious example, but
resembles the situation found in the Tanzania survey. The
histogram is the observed distribution. It is composed
of at least three distributions:
- a
distribution among persons without any mycobacterial infection
(dashed line), usually not exceeding 1 or 2 mm;
- a
distribution among persons with tuberculous infection (full line),
with an expected close to normal distribution peaking at 16 to 17 mm;
- a
distribution among persons with infection due to environmental
mycobacteria (dashed-dotted line), probably peaking at 4 to 8 mm.
The
table shows the four possibilities that arise when a test (here the
tuberculin skin test) with a simple categorical definition into
"positive" and "negative" (defined by a cut-off point)
is used to identify the presence or absence of a condition (here
tuberculous infection). The number with a false
negative result is denoted as "c", the number with a false
positive result as "b". The
sensitivity of the test is the proportion of persons with
tuberculous infection correctly identified with a positive test: "a/(a+c)". The
specificity of the test is the proportion of persons without
tuberculous infection correctly identified with a negative test: "d/(b+d)". The
predictive value of a positive test is the proportion among all
with a positive result who actually have tuberculous infection: "a/(a+b)". The
predictive value of a negative test is the proportion among all
with a negative result who do not have tuberculous infection: "d/(c+d)". At
the cut-off defined to denote a positive or a negative test in this
example, a certain number of persons (c) has a negative test, but
has actually tuberculous infection. That is the limitation in the sensitivity
of the test. At the cut-off defined to
denote a positive or a negative test in this example, a certain number of
persons (b) has a positive test, but has actually no tuberculous
infection. That is the limitation in the specificity of the
test. As one moves the cut-off point to the
left, sensitivity increases, and specificity decreases. As
one moves the cut-off point to the right, sensitivity decreases,
and specificity increases. To
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